The AIDS virus has hit hard among wave after wave of young adults in the USA, and shows the most detailed look yet at HIV infection trends.
If the pattern continues, "the threat of AIDS is going to become a rite of passage" for generations to come, says researcher Philip Rosenberg of the National Cancer Institute. His report, in today's Science, has some good news: Slightly fewer people are infected than once thought. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta counts only fullblown AIDS cases, which can occur l0 years or more after infection. Rosenberg used case counts and other data to retrace HIV infection patterns from l98l to l992.
The result "a better, more refined snapshot," he says. Among the findings: By 1993, between 630,000 and 897,000 people were living with HIV. The government estimate has been 800,000 to l.2 million. A new estimate, under review, will rely partly on Rosenberg's data, says the CDC.
In two successive five year periods, HIV infections rose among young people as they reached their 20s and peaked in their midto late 20s. Rates were highest among young black and Hispanic men, lowest among white women and falling among white men.
Says Cornelius Baker of the National Association of People With AIDS: "We have to be clear Right now ... if you get HIV in your 20s, you will die by around 40 years old. "New prevention ads aimed at youth are coming Nov. 30. Rosenberg's study coincides with a grim milestone: CDC today confirms the 500,000th AIDS case. Since l98l, more than 300,000 have died.